دانشگاه اصفهان جامعه شناسی کاربردی 2008-5745 32 4 2021 12 22 Generational Differences Related to Demographic Attitudes in Iran تفاوت نسلی مرتبط با نگرش‌های جمعیت‌شناختی در ایران 69 96 25823 10.22108/jas.2021.121935.1880 FA یعقوب فروتن دانشیار، گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران خدیجه صادقی کارشناس ارشد جامعه شناسی، گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر Journal Article 2020 03 03 Introduction The present study examines generational considerations associated with demographic attitudes in Iran. The importance of such studies lies primarily on the increasing pattern of the process so-called ‘the transformation of demographic characteristics, which is also identified as one of the most important traits of contemporary societies. In this line, the main research question addressed in the present study is the whether demographic attitudes depend on generational belongings or not. In other words, are we dealing with ‘generational divergence’ or ‘generational convergence’ with respect to demographic attitudes? Accordingly, the research findings presented and discussed in the present study aim to address this key research question. Materials and Methods From the methodological perspective, the field of this analysis is Iran. It is worth mentioning that Iran is globally well-recognized for this kind of study since it has witnessed one of the most spectacular demographic swings in the human history (McDonald, 2005; Foroutan, 2014, 2019) and has experienced fundamental socio-cultural changes and challenges which are also significantly associated with the generational transition from demographic perspectives. The empirical research findings of this analysis are based on a recently-conducted and nationally-representative survey in order to examine the patterns and determinants associated with generational aspects of demographic attitudes in Iran. The survey includes a sample of 5200 males and females aged 15 years old and over residing in both urban and rural areas of Ahvaz, Babolsar, Bojnord, Esfarayen, GonbadKavos, Gorgan, Hamadan, Kamyaran, Khoramabad, Mahmoudabad, Rasht, and Saghez. Moreover, demographic attitudes in the present study have been measured by five key components: childbearing desires, attitudes towards the current official population policy so-called pronatalism, attitudes towards emigration, divorce, and women’s age at first marriage. The term sex refers to male and female respondents, while gender attitude is measured on the basis of the respondents’ views on women’s employment outside the home. The present analysis shows four major age cohorts including individuals aged 15-24 years, 25-34 years, 35-49 years, and 50 years old and above. Discussion of Results and Conclusion The results show two major patterns. First, there are substantial generational similarities and disparities in attitudes towards the demographic components including women’s age at marriage, pronatalism, childbearing preferences, divorce, and emigration. This means that on the one hand, the research findings support the three most visible observations across all generations: the two-child family is the most desirable childbearing pattern; both pro-natalism and divorce are rejected by the majority of all generational cohorts. On the other hand, when we go from a younger generational cohort towards an older cohort, we observe demographic outcomes including the greater desire for high childbearing, more positive attitudes towards women’s marriage at younger ages, and both emigration and divorce become less welcomed. Second, the similarities and disparities across the generational cohorts highlighted above are also significantly affected by such demographic determinants as gender, place of residence, and education. This means that males and rural residents are more likely to have stronger attitudes towards emigration and women’s marriage at younger ages and more negative attitudes towards divorce than females and urban residents. These male-female differentials apply to all generational cohorts. On the other hand, the magnitude of the effects of these determinants depends significantly on the kind of demographic characteristics. For instance, the determinant of gender has almost no significant effect on childbearing desires and pronatalism in such a way that both males and females in each generational cohort hold similar attitudes towards childbearing and pronatalism. However, there could be observed gender difference in attitudes towards women’s age at marriage in all generational cohorts; women’s marriage at younger ages is overwhelmingly more welcomed by males than by females. In sum, the results confirm two main conclusions: they not only sit well with a combined version of cohort replacement theory and intra-cohort changes theory but also support the underlying fact that the demographic attitudes cannot be simply and merely explained through either generational gap or generational convergence. در این پژوهش ملاحظات نسلی مرتبط با نگرش‌های جمعیت‌شناختی در ایران بررسی شده است. اصولاً ضرورت و اهمیت این قبیل مطالعات و پژوهش‌ها در روند فزایندۀ فرایند موسوم به «تغییر شکل ویژگی‌های جمعیت‌شناختی» ریشه دارد که از مهم‌ترین نشانه‌های جوامع معاصر محسوب می‌شود. در همین چارچوب، پرسش کلیدی پژوهش این است که آیا نگرش‌های جمعیت‌شناختی تابعی از متغیر تعلق نسلی است؛ به عبارت دقیق‌‎تر، آیا ما در عرصۀ نگرش‌های جمعیت‌شناختی شاهد شکاف نسلی یا هم‌گرایی نسلی هستیم ؟ تجزیه‌وتحلیل‌های این پژوهش، بر یک بررسی پیمایشی مبتنی است که جمعیت نمونۀ آن را در مجموع، تعداد 5200 نفر مردان و زنان ساکن نقاط شهری و روستایی دوازده شهرستان منتخب ایران تشکیل می‌دهد. به‌طور خلاصه، نتایج تجزیه‌وتحلیل‌ها نشان داده است ملاحظات نسلی مرتبط با نگرش‌های جمعیت‌شناختی هم در چارچوب ترکیب و آمیزه‌ای از دو نظریۀ جایگزینی نسلی و نظریۀ تغییرات نگرشی میان‌نسلی تبیین و تأیید می‌شوند و هم بر این نکتۀ مهم صحه می‌گذارند که نباید به‌سادگی ملاحظات نسلی مرتبط با نحوۀ نگرش به مجموعۀ درهم‌تنیده‎‌ای از مؤلفه‌های جمعیت‌شناختی مشتمل بر سن ازدواج دختران، سیاست افزایش جمعیت، ترجیحات فرزندآوری، طلاق و مهاجرت را منحصراً در قالب یکی از دو گزینۀ شکاف نسلی یا هم‌گرایی نسلی تقلیل داد.

https://jas.ui.ac.ir/article_25823_9a03aa9bed3390c31e04716b896a7f0d.pdf