دانشگاه اصفهان جامعه شناسی کاربردی 2008-5745 37 2 2026 06 22 Effects of Net Migration and Unemployment Rate on Celibacy Ratio among the Population Over 30 Years Old in Iran: Spatial Analysis اثر مهاجرت و بیکاری بر تجرد جمعیت بالای 30 سال در ایران؛ تحلیل فضایی 19 46 30028 10.22108/jas.2025.146074.2681 FA فاطمه تنها استادیار، گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران حسین محمودیان استاد، گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 07 27 <strong>Introduction</strong> Delayed marriage and the resulting increase in the celibacy ratio are significant changes affecting the family institution in recent years. These shifts have prompted research across various fields to identify and examine the different dimensions of this phenomenon. Beyond its numerous individual and social consequences, this trend contributes to declining fertility rates as fewer individuals are engaged in childbearing. Consequently, studying and analyzing the factors influencing the celibacy ratio has become a focal interest for demographers. Research indicates that structural factors, such as migration and unemployment, significantly impact the celibacy ratio within populations. In recent years, Iran has seen a notable rise in the number of individuals who remain single. Census data from recent decades further highlight substantial internal migration flows within the country. This article aimed to investigate the effects of migration and unemployment on the celibacy ratio among individuals over the age of 30, along with a spatial analysis of these factors.   <strong> </strong> <strong>Materials & Methods</strong> This research employed a quantitative methodology utilizing secondary data analysis. Three key indicators—celibacy ratio, net migration, and unemployment rate—were derived from census data and the statistical yearbook of the Statistics Center of Iran. The celibacy ratio was calculated for the populations of the counties divided into two groups: men and women aged 30-39, 40-49, and 50 years and older. The analysis was conducted using ArcGIS and GeoDa software. Data analysis methods included least squares regression, geographically weighted regression, and Moran's spatial autocorrelation.   <strong>Discussion of Results & Conclusion</strong> The findings indicated that the celibacy ratio among individuals over 30 years of age was higher in the western, southwestern, and northwestern regions of Iran compared to other areas. Analysis revealed that net migration had a negative impact on the celibacy ratio for this demographic. Specifically, migration had led to an increase in the celibacy ratio in immigrant-sending counties, while it had decreased in immigrant-receiving counties. Conversely, the unemployment rate positively correlated with the celibacy ratio; counties with higher unemployment rates exhibited higher celibacy ratios, whereas those with lower unemployment had lower rates of singleness. There were notable gender differences in how migration and unemployment affected the celibacy ratio. The influence of these variables on the celibacy rate was more pronounced among women, particularly in the western regions of the country. High unemployment rates had contributed to increased celibacy rates for both females and males in certain counties. In some areas, male migration had further elevated the celibacy ratio among women. Application of bivariate Moran's I analysis revealed that counties in western Iran formed a significant low-high cluster characterized by low net migration (immigrant-sending) and high celibacy ratios. In contrast, many counties in the western half of Iran belonged to a high-high cluster marked by high unemployment rates and elevated celibacy ratios. Improving job creation could provide a foundation for marriage in some counties in the west and northwest of Iran by reducing migration and fostering the necessary conditions for family formation. Future research can focus on analyzing regional differences in population celibacy and exploring additional factors, apart from unemployment and migration that influence the celibacy ratio. Qualitative studies in this area could also provide valuable insights. افزایش تجرد ازجمله تحولات در نهاد خانواده است که در سال‌های اخیر در کشور رخ داده است. این پدیده پیامدهای متعدد فردی و اجتماعی ازجمله کاهش افراد در معرض فرزندآوری را در جامعه در پی داشته است. این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل فضایی اثر مهاجرت و بیکاری بر نسبت‌های تجرد جمعیت بیش از 30 سال شهرستان‌ها در ایران انجام شد؛ بدین منظور روش‌ رگرسیون وزن‌دار جغرافیایی و خودهمبستگی فضایی موران دومتغیره استفاده شد. یافته‌ها نشان داد که خالص مهاجرت، اثر منفی و نرخ بیکاری، اثر مثبت بر نسبت تجرد جمعیت بیش از 30 سال شهرستان‌ها داشته است که نشان‌دهندۀ بیشتربودن نسبت تجرد جمعیت در مناطق مهاجرفرست و مناطق با نرخ بیکاری بالاتر است. این اثر در جمعیت زنان 49-30 سال بیشتر از جمعیت مردان بوده است. نتایج موران دومتغیره نشان‌دهندۀ وجود خودهمبستگی فضایی منفی بین خالص مهاجرت و خودهمبستگی فضایی مثبت بین نرخ بیکاری با نسبت تجرد جمعیت 49-30 سال شهرستان‌ها بود. تحلیل نقشه‌های خوشه‌بندی مشخص کرد که مناطق غرب کشور که بیشترین نرخ‌های بیکاری و مهاجرفرستی را دارند، تجرد بیشتری در سنین 49-30 سال خصوصاً در جمعیت زنان دارند. بهبود توسعۀ متوازن و ایجاد اشتغال در مناطق غرب کشور با ایجاد امکانات لازم برای ازدواج و همچنین کاهش مهاجرت مردان، می‌تواند زمینه را برای افزایش میزان ازدواج به‌خصوص برای زنان در این مناطق فراهم کند. https://jas.ui.ac.ir/article_30028_433657b0a35d2f4481303e65cfb2e0ef.pdf